40% Chance of US Recession this Year: JPMorgan
Recently, JPMorgan’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, made a startling prediction: there’s a 40% chance of a US recession this year. This warning comes with a stern warning: if the administration undermines trust in US governance, the country risks lasting damage to its position as an investment destination.
Kasman’s recession risk outlook has increased significantly since the beginning of 2025. In January, he predicted a 30% chance of a recession, but the recent data has led him to revise his forecast upward. The increased risk is due to a combination of factors, including the ongoing trade tensions and the potential for reciprocal tariffs.
In an interview, Kasman emphasized the importance of the administration taking steps to maintain trust in US governance. He warned that if the government undermines this trust, it could have far-reaching consequences for the country’s economy. Kasman explained that the US has traditionally enjoyed an “exorbitant privilege” as an investment destination, but this could be at risk if the government’s actions erode this trust.
The potential for a recession is not the only concern. Kasman also highlighted the risk of lasting damage to the US economy if the administration’s actions lead to a loss of trust. He explained that the US has historically been a safe haven for investors, but this could change if the government’s actions create uncertainty and undermine confidence.
Kasman’s warning comes as the US is already experiencing slowing economic growth. The country’s GDP growth rate has been declining steadily since the beginning of 2025, and many economists are predicting a recession in the near future. The recent data has led some to question whether the US is already in a recession, or if it is simply experiencing a slowdown.
The potential for a recession would have significant consequences for the US economy. A recession would likely lead to a decline in economic activity, a rise in unemployment, and a decline in consumer spending. This could have far-reaching consequences for businesses, investors, and individuals.
Kasman’s warning also comes as the US is experiencing unprecedented levels of debt. The country’s national debt has surpassed $25 trillion, and many economists are warning that this level of debt is unsustainable. The potential for a recession would only add to the country’s debt burden, making it even more challenging to manage.
In conclusion, JPMorgan’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, has warned that there is a 40% chance of a US recession this year. The risk is even higher if the administration imposes reciprocal tariffs. Kasman emphasized the importance of maintaining trust in US governance, warning that the country risks lasting damage to its position as an investment destination if this trust is eroded.
The potential for a recession is a serious concern for the US economy. The country is already experiencing slowing economic growth, and the recent data has led many to question whether the US is already in a recession. The potential consequences of a recession are significant, including a decline in economic activity, a rise in unemployment, and a decline in consumer spending.
It is essential for the administration to take steps to maintain trust in US governance. This includes implementing policies that promote economic growth, reducing the national debt, and addressing the country’s trade tensions. By taking these steps, the administration can help to mitigate the risk of a recession and maintain the US’s position as an attractive investment destination.
