How accurate were Delhi exit polls predictions in 2015 & 2020?
Exit polls play a crucial role in predicting the outcome of elections, providing valuable insights into the voting patterns and preferences of the electorate. In the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls were conducted by various agencies, predicting the outcome of the polls. But how accurate were these predictions? In this blog post, we will analyze the exit polls conducted in 2015 and 2020, and examine how they fared in terms of accuracy.
2015 Delhi Assembly Elections
In the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would secure 45 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 24, and the Congress party one. However, the actual results revealed a stark contrast. The AAP won an overwhelming 67 seats, leaving the BJP with a paltry three and the Congress with zero seats.
The exit polls conducted by various agencies, including the Republic-C-Voter survey, the ABP News-AC Nielsen survey, and the Times Now-CNX survey, all predicted a close contest between the AAP and the BJP. However, none of them anticipated the scale of the AAP’s victory. The AAP’s landslide win was attributed to its popular leader Arvind Kejriwal, who was seen as a champion of the common man and a crusader against corruption.
2020 Delhi Assembly Elections
In the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls predicted a tighter contest between the AAP and the BJP. The Republic-C-Voter survey predicted that the AAP would win 54 seats, while the BJP would win 15. The ABP News-AC Nielsen survey also predicted a similar outcome, with the AAP winning 53 seats and the BJP winning 14.
However, the actual results revealed a different picture. The AAP won 62 seats, while the BJP won eight. Once again, the exit polls underestimated the scale of the AAP’s victory. The AAP’s win was attributed to its promise of free healthcare and education, as well as its campaign slogan “BJP ke saath nahin, Desh ke saath” (Not with the BJP, but with the country).
Analysis of Exit Polls
The accuracy of exit polls can be measured by comparing the predicted outcome with the actual results. In both the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, the exit polls underestimated the scale of the AAP’s victory.
In 2015, the exit polls predicted that the AAP would win around 45 seats, while it actually won 67 seats. In 2020, the exit polls predicted that the AAP would win around 54 seats, while it actually won 62 seats.
The inaccuracy of the exit polls can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, the exit polls are based on a sample of voters, which may not be representative of the entire electorate. Secondly, the exit polls are conducted on a specific day, which may not reflect the voting patterns of voters in other parts of the city.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the exit polls conducted in 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections were not entirely accurate. While they predicted a close contest between the AAP and the BJP, they underestimated the scale of the AAP’s victory. The AAP’s landslide win in 2015 and its comfortable win in 2020 were attributed to its popular leader Arvind Kejriwal and its campaign promises of free healthcare and education.
Exit polls play an important role in predicting the outcome of elections, providing valuable insights into the voting patterns and preferences of the electorate. However, their accuracy can be questioned, and voters should be cautious in relying solely on exit polls to predict the outcome of elections.
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