How accurate were Delhi exit polls predictions in 2015 & 2020?
Exit polls have become an integral part of the electoral process in India, providing a glimpse into the voter’s preferences and predicting the outcome of elections. However, the accuracy of these polls has often been questioned, with some predicting wildly incorrect results. In this blog post, we will examine the accuracy of Delhi exit polls in 2015 and 2020, and analyze how well they predicted the actual results.
2015 Delhi Assembly Elections
The 2015 Delhi Assembly elections were a significant event in Indian politics, with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) looking to expand its presence in the capital. Exit polls estimated that AAP would secure 45 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win 24 seats, and the Indian National Congress (Congress) would win just one seat. However, the actual results told a different story. AAP won an astonishing 67 seats, leaving BJP with just three seats and Congress with none.
The miscalculation was significant, with exit polls underestimating AAP’s strength by a whopping 22 seats. The actual results were a major upset, as AAP’s popularity surged in the capital. The party’s leader, Arvind Kejriwal, went on to form the government, becoming the Chief Minister of Delhi.
2020 Delhi Assembly Elections
The 2020 Delhi Assembly elections were another closely watched event, with AAP looking to retain its power in the capital. Exit polls predicted that AAP would win 54 seats, while the BJP would win 15 seats. However, the actual results again defied the polls, with AAP winning 62 seats and the BJP winning eight seats.
While the exit polls did better in 2020 than in 2015, they still underpredicted AAP’s strength by six seats. The actual results saw AAP winning 62 seats, while the BJP’s tally was much lower than predicted. The party’s leader, Arvind Kejriwal, again went on to form the government, becoming the Chief Minister of Delhi for a second term.
What went wrong?
So, what went wrong with the exit polls in both 2015 and 2020? There are several factors that could have contributed to the miscalculations.
One major factor is the complexity of Delhi’s political landscape. The city has a large and diverse population, with multiple parties and factions vying for power. This makes it difficult for exit polls to accurately predict the outcome, as voters may not always choose their preferred candidate or party.
Another factor is the issue of sample size and methodology. Exit polls typically rely on a sample of voters who have already cast their ballots, but this sample may not be representative of the entire electorate. Additionally, the methodology used to conduct the polls may not take into account the complexities of Delhi’s political landscape.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the accuracy of Delhi exit polls in 2015 and 2020 was questionable, with both polls significantly underestimating AAP’s strength. While exit polls can provide valuable insights into the electoral process, they are not always accurate, and should be taken with a grain of salt.
As we look ahead to future elections, it is essential to critically evaluate the accuracy of exit polls and consider the complexities of the electoral process. By doing so, we can gain a better understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of each party, and make more informed decisions about who to vote for.
Source:
