How accurate were Delhi exit polls predictions in 2015 & 2020?
Exit polls are a crucial component of any election, providing valuable insights into the likely outcome of an election. In the state of Delhi, exit polls have become an essential tool for predicting the results of the Assembly elections. However, how accurate have these predictions been in the past? In this blog post, we will take a closer look at the accuracy of exit polls in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections.
2015 Delhi Assembly Elections
In the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls predicted that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would secure 45 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 24, and the Indian National Congress (Congress) one. However, the actual results saw AAP winning 67 seats, leaving BJP with three, and Congress with none.
The exit polls, conducted by various news organizations, including the Indian Express, predicted a close contest between AAP and BJP, with AAP slightly ahead. However, the actual results showed a significant lead for AAP, with the party winning more than double the number of seats predicted.
The reasons for the discrepancy between the exit polls and the actual results are varied. One possible explanation is that the exit polls did not accurately capture the mood of the voters. The 2015 Delhi Assembly elections were a significant event, with AAP seeking to retain power after just one year in government. The party’s anti-corruption agenda and its promise to provide free electricity and water to residents resonated with many voters, leading to a strong show of support.
Another possible explanation is that the exit polls did not accurately reflect the voting patterns in the city’s various constituencies. Delhi is a complex city, with different constituencies having different demographic profiles. The exit polls may not have captured the nuances of these differences, leading to inaccuracies in their predictions.
2020 Delhi Assembly Elections
In the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls predicted that AAP would win 54 seats, while BJP would win 15. However, the actual results saw AAP winning 62 seats, and BJP eight.
Once again, the exit polls did not accurately capture the mood of the voters. AAP’s campaign focused on its achievements in the previous five years, including the provision of free healthcare and education to residents. The party also promised to continue its anti-corruption agenda and to improve the city’s infrastructure.
The exit polls did predict a close contest between AAP and BJP, but they did not accurately reflect the scale of AAP’s victory. The actual results saw AAP winning more than 60% of the total seats, while BJP won just 13%.
Conclusion
The accuracy of exit polls in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections is a matter of concern. While exit polls can provide valuable insights into the likely outcome of an election, they are not always accurate. The reasons for the discrepancy between the exit polls and the actual results are varied, and can include factors such as the mood of the voters, the accuracy of the polling data, and the complexity of the city’s demographics.
In conclusion, while exit polls can be a useful tool in predicting the outcome of an election, they are not always accurate. The accuracy of exit polls can be improved by using more accurate polling data, by accounting for the complexities of a city’s demographics, and by taking into account the mood of the voters.
