How Accurate Were Delhi Exit Poll Predictions in 2015 & 2020?
Exit polls have become an integral part of the election process in India, providing an early indication of the outcome of a poll. In the recent Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls predicted the outcome of the poll, but to what extent were they accurate? In this blog post, we will analyze the accuracy of exit poll predictions in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections.
2015 Delhi Assembly Elections
In the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls predicted a close contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress. According to exit polls, AAP was estimated to secure 45 seats, while the BJP was expected to win 24 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, was predicted to win only one seat. However, the actual results were a far cry from these predictions.
On February 10, 2015, the AAP won a landslide victory, securing 67 seats in the 70-member Assembly. The BJP, on the other hand, managed to win only three seats, while the Congress drew a blank, failing to win a single seat. The exit polls, therefore, were off the mark by a significant margin.
There are several reasons why the exit polls may have gone wrong. One reason could be the volatility of Delhi’s political landscape. The city has a history of electing governments with a clear majority, but also of throwing up surprise results. In 2013, the AAP, which was a new party at the time, won a majority in the Delhi Assembly, defeating the Congress, which had been in power for 15 years.
Another reason could be the tendency of voters to change their minds at the last minute. Exit polls are conducted on the day of the election, but voters may have changed their minds after seeing the campaign promises of different parties. In the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections, AAP’s campaign focused on issues like corruption, education, and healthcare, which may have resonated with voters.
2020 Delhi Assembly Elections
In the 2020 Delhi Assembly elections, exit polls predicted a similar outcome to the 2015 elections, with AAP expected to win a majority. According to exit polls, AAP was estimated to win 54 seats, while the BJP was predicted to win 15 seats. However, the actual results were slightly different.
On February 11, 2020, the AAP won 62 seats in the 70-member Assembly, while the BJP won eight seats. The Congress failed to win a single seat, failing to make any significant impact in the elections.
Like in 2015, the exit polls were off the mark in 2020 as well. There are several reasons why this could have happened. One reason could be the emergence of new parties in Delhi, which may have split the vote and made it difficult for exit polls to accurately predict the outcome.
Another reason could be the changing political landscape of Delhi. In 2015, AAP’s campaign focused on issues like corruption and governance, which resonated with voters. In 2020, AAP’s campaign focused on issues like healthcare and education, which may have appealed to a different segment of voters.
Conclusion
Exit polls are an important tool in the election process, providing an early indication of the outcome of a poll. However, they are not always accurate, as we saw in the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly elections. The actual results were significantly different from the exit poll predictions, with AAP winning more seats than predicted in both elections.
There are several reasons why exit polls may go wrong, including the volatility of the political landscape, the tendency of voters to change their minds at the last minute, and the emergence of new parties or issues. Despite these limitations, exit polls remain an important tool for understanding the outcome of an election, and can provide valuable insights for parties and voters alike.
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